Trending: Q1 2015
Like you, I watch the forum boards. They are the beating heart of the gear world. This is where ideas start, trends emerge, and the coolest stuff in the world is shown off before everyone has one. It is like the dumping ground for all of our googling and research. And so I thought it might be useful to highlight some trends I have seen. Not all boards are equal. Some are more newb friendly than others. Some are more focused than others. So if I highlight things you aren't seeing on your forum of choice, that's why. I peruse a bunch of forum boards, but the ones I frequent most regularly are: Watchuseek, Fountain Pen Network, Mulitool.Org, Blade Forums, EDCF, CPF, and the USN.
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1. Custom Flashlights
3. Where is the middle?
Remember the Delica? It is a damn good knife. And the Mini Grip? Its damn good too. With the market booming, everyone is wisely getting while the getting is good, but this means that the average price of a newly released design is probably 50-100% more than it was five years ago. The Benchmade Valet is $170 knife and for the steel, it is a good price. But five years ago that would have been a VERY expensive knife. Now, its almost like a mid-priced blade. Geez. When did that happen? And then there is the San Ren Mu-ification of knives. There are a ton of cheap knives from lesser brands and even some well known brands are dipping their toes into the bargain basement OEM waters. The Delicas, Mini Grips, and Skylines of the world are starting to look quaint.
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1. Traditionals are HOT
I used to be in the "I hate traditionals" camp. But a few years ago I came around to the charm of wonderful slipjoint with jigged bone handles. Since then I have been regularly checking in on the traditionals scene and it has absolutely exploded. The recent issue of the Fremont Jack in Elephant Ivory by Knives Ship Free, was like the detonation of a nuke at the Bikini Atoll.
Image courtesy of Knives Ship Free
Not since the production Dauntless has there been as much online clamor for a non-custom knife. Between Derrick Bohn's Northwoods Knives and GEC, the traditional knife scene is as hot as I have seen it in five years of gear watching.
Image courtesy of Knives Ship Free
Not since the production Dauntless has there been as much online clamor for a non-custom knife. Between Derrick Bohn's Northwoods Knives and GEC, the traditional knife scene is as hot as I have seen it in five years of gear watching.
2. Tom's Choice is Everyone's Choice
The Fremont Jack in Elephant Ivory was a one time shot. But the Tom's Choice line of barlows, produced by GEC has been a series of knives that seem to be endlessly popular.
Its not exactly easy to find them either--they are commissioned by an individual, who then sells them to stores and sells a few himself. Who gets them and when is basically a crapshoot. If you hop on the right traditional knife retailer at the right time you might get one. And if you find one on the forum boards, just buy it. It won't last more than an hour. The barlow form is so pleasing to the hand, pocket, and eye, its easy to understand why folks love TC Barlows. But the handle selection, including a few varieties of saw cut material, is really the driving factor. These TC Barlows are a collector's dream, but they are great users too, because, after all, that is the a barlow is at the end of the day--a pure user.
Its not exactly easy to find them either--they are commissioned by an individual, who then sells them to stores and sells a few himself. Who gets them and when is basically a crapshoot. If you hop on the right traditional knife retailer at the right time you might get one. And if you find one on the forum boards, just buy it. It won't last more than an hour. The barlow form is so pleasing to the hand, pocket, and eye, its easy to understand why folks love TC Barlows. But the handle selection, including a few varieties of saw cut material, is really the driving factor. These TC Barlows are a collector's dream, but they are great users too, because, after all, that is the a barlow is at the end of the day--a pure user.
3. Tain is Killing It
Tain's line of simple, single cell custom lights with musical names have been the hottest lights in the flashlight world for about a year now. A wave is announced, fills up, lights are made, then a few are sold on the secondary market for a 100% premium. Browse the BTS boards of CPF and you will see entry after entry after entry that simply reads: WTB Tain. The reasons are easy enough to understand--the light uses a staged twisty (like the Aeon) with common batteries and delivers good output. The trit slot in the tail of the light is the flashlight equivalent of a cherry on top.
4. ZT is the King
The sheer volume of threads that reference ZT0XXX are staggering. ZT's formula of custom collaborators, high end materials, and in-the-moment design choices is a huge reason why they are so popular. But in the past two years things have been taken up a notch as they have started to make knives that non-gorillas can use (thanks for the phrase Derrick). With the introduction of the ZT0770 (a criminally underrated blade), ZT has started to make knives that you can EDC and the result has been a white hot glow around the brand.
It doesn't hurt that Spyderco's new stuff in the past two years has been bland and Benchmade's stuff has been more boring AND confusing. ZT has both changed for the better and struck while the iron was hot. That is the REAL formula for success.
It doesn't hurt that Spyderco's new stuff in the past two years has been bland and Benchmade's stuff has been more boring AND confusing. ZT has both changed for the better and struck while the iron was hot. That is the REAL formula for success.
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1. Custom Flashlights
I remember it like it was yesterday (because it almost was just yesterday). 2008...the halcyon days of the custom light revolution. There were dozens of dudes making lights, all led by the light master himself McGimzo. There were ArcMania lights, HDS torches in Ti, MilkySpit mods...it was a flasholics paradise. But then folks started to fold up shop and things just got weird (exactly what was the problem with ArcMania? He made people mad on CPF? Ugh...is there anything in the world less important and less interesting the forum board politics?). Since then we have a few guys banging out great stuff, but not like the good ole days. Fortunately, the production light makers have stepped up. Everyone offers a Ti bodied light now. Selector rings are everywhere. There are even touch screen controlled lights. And then there are the semi-custom makers, folks like Peak and TorchLab and Prometheus. Good lights are still out there, they are just being made in different ways and, are, for the most part, cheaper.
2. Hinderer Herd Needs Some Thinning
Ready? The Cryo, Cryo II, Thermite, Ember, ZT0560, ZT0566, ZT0562, ZT0392, the XM-18 with four blade shapes and two sizes, the XM-24, and an assortment of fixed blades.
But its not really the proliferation of his designs that is cramping the market, it is the fact that its not clear what Hinderer wants to be. Does he want to be a knife designer? Does he want to be a custom maker? Does he want to run his own production line? Does he want to be a supplier for KAI? Right now he is all of these things and it is clear, watching the forums, that this has over saturated the market. He has produced XM-18s in staggering numbers recently and this, couple with the prodigious output from KAI, has lowered the price of XM-18s. I bought mine and sold it about a year ago and I lost zero dollars. I sold it for $636. Now you can find them all day long on boards for $450. Good sleuthing will land you one for just over direct prices--$425-430. The days of $1000 XM-18s are over. And if you bought one hoping to flip it...well ask Goldman Sachs. This is a perfect example of why knives make bad investments. But I think a bigger drop is coming. There is only so many ways you can slice the baloney, and with all of those models and all of those knives in the market, I think we are going to see a collective overdose. But what do I know, the ZT0562CF has been sold out everywhere.
2. Hinderer Herd Needs Some Thinning
Ready? The Cryo, Cryo II, Thermite, Ember, ZT0560, ZT0566, ZT0562, ZT0392, the XM-18 with four blade shapes and two sizes, the XM-24, and an assortment of fixed blades.
But its not really the proliferation of his designs that is cramping the market, it is the fact that its not clear what Hinderer wants to be. Does he want to be a knife designer? Does he want to be a custom maker? Does he want to run his own production line? Does he want to be a supplier for KAI? Right now he is all of these things and it is clear, watching the forums, that this has over saturated the market. He has produced XM-18s in staggering numbers recently and this, couple with the prodigious output from KAI, has lowered the price of XM-18s. I bought mine and sold it about a year ago and I lost zero dollars. I sold it for $636. Now you can find them all day long on boards for $450. Good sleuthing will land you one for just over direct prices--$425-430. The days of $1000 XM-18s are over. And if you bought one hoping to flip it...well ask Goldman Sachs. This is a perfect example of why knives make bad investments. But I think a bigger drop is coming. There is only so many ways you can slice the baloney, and with all of those models and all of those knives in the market, I think we are going to see a collective overdose. But what do I know, the ZT0562CF has been sold out everywhere.
3. Where is the middle?
Remember the Delica? It is a damn good knife. And the Mini Grip? Its damn good too. With the market booming, everyone is wisely getting while the getting is good, but this means that the average price of a newly released design is probably 50-100% more than it was five years ago. The Benchmade Valet is $170 knife and for the steel, it is a good price. But five years ago that would have been a VERY expensive knife. Now, its almost like a mid-priced blade. Geez. When did that happen? And then there is the San Ren Mu-ification of knives. There are a ton of cheap knives from lesser brands and even some well known brands are dipping their toes into the bargain basement OEM waters. The Delicas, Mini Grips, and Skylines of the world are starting to look quaint.
See you in three months.